Biggest Upset Predictions

Let’s face it, it’s called March Madness because every year something “mad” happens that was absolutely not supposed to happen. Like when Virginia became the first #1 seed to lose in the first round and then when Purdue did it again a couple years later.

History is bound to repeat itself and these upsets are inevitably happening this year. The question is which teams are going to be the one to bust brackets across the world. And according to the NCAA, no one has ever had an official verified perfect bracket. While I can’t guarantee you a perfect bracket or that these upsets will even happen in the first place — these are my favorite upsets of this years bracket.

Three years in a row now a 15 seed has won in the first round of the tournament and I think this year is going to make the 4th consecutive year.

#15 Western Kentucky beats #2 Marquette

According to ESPN’s Tournament Challenge 2.2% of brackets selected Marquette as their tournament champions. Marquette hasn’t beat any teams that I consider real contenders from this year. Although WKU hasn’t either, the Hilltoppers are used to giving up 74 points a game and essentially play to outscore their opponents. They rank first in NCAA’s pace and are a top 30 scoring and rebounding team in the nation. If the Golden Eagles have an off night this is a top seed that could go down.

#13 Samford beats #4 Kansas

Every year there is a team that isn’t suspected to win the entire tournament but is essentially a “lock” to make the later rounds that ends up disappointing everyone. With injuries and question marks in terms of the Jayhawks, this is another case of outscoring your opponent. The Jayhawks average 75.3 PPG but the Bulldogs have given up 73.9 PPG all season long — and only have been outscored 5 times. Samford will rely on their 3-pt shooting as the nations 7th best 3-point shooting team (39.3%). Speed kills once again; a top 15 team in pace and 5th in PPG the nation along with 10 steals a game. Look for Samford to get their first tournament win against one of the leagues premier programs.

#12 James Madison beats #5 Wisconsin

To be honest, this may be the least surprising of all the “upsets” in the bracket. Wisconsin is truthfully just not a great team. The story remains consistent throughout these picks as the Dukes are a fast pace, high-scoring, efficient shooters who have rebounded, passed, and defended as well as the top 20 teams in the nation.

The teams that have the most success in the tournament are the ones that are able to score the ball and get hot. The next teams on this list are upset that I selected but are more feeling based than statistical.

#11 Oregon beats #6 South Carolina

Not that the Ducks are/have been some elite team all season but the point is that the Gamecocks haven’t been by any stretch. Oregon has two 15+ point scorers and have been competed with tough teams all season long while SC was beat by nearly 30 points to Alabama where Oregon only lost by 8. The Ducks have given up exactly what the Gamecocks average all season long and are a faster more efficient team this season.

#11 New Mexico beats #6 Clemson

Not sure this should even be considered and upset since the Lobos are favored in this matchup. This is the least confident I am about an upset pick because the rest of the field is expecting this one. It’s a pretty even matchup but it’s needed to be included.

#12 Grand Canyon beats #5 Saint Mary’s

For two non-major teams, Grand Canyon’s statistics outweigh Saint Mary’s despite similar opponents all season long. The Antelopes have a solid win over #5 SDSU and a close loss to South Carolina earlier in the year and will rely on the back of their leading scorer who puts up nearly 20 ppg.

Obviously, or maybe not obviously, all of these upsets can’t happen but the confidence is pretty high for the first three all based on statistics. As we know anything can happen in the NCAA Tournament but let’s see if we can at least get a few of the many upset picks right.

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